We enter a period of uncertainty for employment law as 2017 begins. Much of the stability that was felt to be under our feet, built up over three or more decades of broad political consensus, feels like it is eroding and the ground becoming less solid. The two principal vehicles for this change are Brexit and the election of Donald Trump in the United States.

The latter is perhaps more predictable in its effect. Trump has an explicit agenda of repatriating jobs, profit and cash to the States via US companies that had, in his view, exported them. At the time of writing – before Trump’s inauguration and therefore prior to him actually becoming President – he has already claimed success in persuading the Ford Motor Company and a manufacturer of industrial equipment that opening plants in Mexico would not be in their economic interest. He has told BMW that any cars it builds in Mexico will attract a 35% import tariff (prompting a fall in its share price of 1.2% in a day).

This is classic protectionism and, if one follows the economic model through, it leads to a decline in international trade and an overall lowering of economic growth. Experience over the past few decades of economic performance suggests that where economic growth is higher there is an extension of employment rights and where it is lower they contract. Compare the period 1997 to 2006, with 2010 to 2015.

Brexit is far more difficult to predict because the messages have been very mixed. Fears were expressed in the run-up to the referendum in June 2016 that if the decision was to leave the EU, the UK would – by accident or design – become a low-tax, low regulation (including employment) haven off the coast of Europe. Reassurance was given on this by Theresa May, no less. She said employment rights would not only be protected but would be extended.

On the less reassuring side are two things: the so-called Great Repeal Bill and the perceived threat by both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister for dealing with a difficult Brexit negotiation. The Great Repeal Bill aims to convert all existing EU-derived law into domestic law so that, on day one following the UK’s exit from the EU, nothing will change in terms of the law.

It is suggested, however, that the UK will then be able to decide which EU-derived law we want to keep, and that which we do not will be able to be repealed by a minister signing an order, rather than Parliament having to debate and vote on it. As readers will know, there are some quite chunky (and much-debated) employment rights that will fit into this category.

The threat made was that if the EU tries to punish the UK by refusing a reasonable deal, then we would have to consider ‘changing our economic model’, for which one might read low-tax, low-regulation haven off the coast of Europe.

Time will tell and ELA will certainly keep you informed.

Finally there have been changes to the editorial board. We bid farewell and huge thanks to Mark Hunt and Mo Sethi. Both have made much appreciated contributions over the years. We welcome John McMullen, Ann Leigh-Pollitt and Kathleen Bada and hope they do the same. I am sure they will.

Alex Lock, DAC Beachcroft LLP